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Nov 06, 2024

Ball State football vs NIU: Scouting report, score prediction

With its nonconference slate now complete, Ball State football can fully shift its focus to conference play with five MAC games left on the schedule. Up first is a homecoming matchup with interstate

With its nonconference slate now complete, Ball State football can fully shift its focus to conference play with five MAC games left on the schedule.

Up first is a homecoming matchup with interstate rival Northern Illinois in the Battle for the Bronze Stalk. Ball State and NIU have played for the trophy since 2008. The Cardinals have taken home the last two Bronze Stalks and four of the last five. The trophy, consisting of several cornstalks, pays tribute to the prevalence of the crop throughout the two states.

Ball State (2-5, 1-2) is coming off a 24-14 loss at Vanderbilt in which the defense looked the best it has all season. NIU (4-3, 1-2) clinched a signature win in Week 2 with a 16-14 upset of then-No. 7 Notre Dame but has gone 2-3 since then. The Huskies lost 13-6 to Toledo last week.

More:Ball State football: 3 takeaways from hard-fought road loss to Vanderbilt

More:'We're getting better every week': Ball State defense gains confidence vs Vanderbilt

Ball State and NIU are set for a 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff on Saturday, Oct. 26, at Scheumann Stadium. Here's a scouting report, as well as a score prediction, for Ball State football vs. Northern Illinois in the Battle for the Bronze Stalk.

Both teams are led by former players who returned to their alma maters as head coaches.

Ball State's Mike Neu played quarterback for the Cardinals from 1990-93. As a senior, he led Ball State to a MAC championship and was named the the league's MVP and Offensive Player of the Year. He spent some time as a QB coach in the Arena Football League, college football, and the NFL before returning to Ball State as the head coach in 2016.

On the other side, NIU coach Thomas Hammock was a running back for the Huskies from 1999-2002. He ran for 2,432 yards in 32 games, including back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons in 2000-01. Hammock's playing career came to an early end in his senior season, when he was diagnosed with a heart condition that ended his playing career. Like Neu, Hammock became a position coach, coaching running backs at the college and NFL levels before returning to NIU in 2019.

The two coaches have brought success to their respective alma maters. Neu led Ball State to a MAC championship in 2020, and Hammock did the same for NIU the following season.

As a former running back, Hammock employs a run-heavy offense. The ground game is led by 2023 All-MAC first-team running back Antario Brown, who rushed for 1,296 yards last season and averaged 6.1 yards per carry. Brown was out for NIU's game against Bowling Green two weeks ago and was limited in his return last week against Toledo but is expected to be good for Saturday. Gavin Williams has played well when Brown has been injured and should remain a part of the Huskies' plan.

Stopping the run has been a struggle this season for Ball State. The Cardinals allow 181.3 rushing yards per game and 5.57 yards per carry on average. However, things have improved in the last two weeks. Kent State was held to just 67 rushing yards on an average of 2.2 yards per carry, and Vanderbilt's dangerous triple-option offense only managed 145 rushing yards on a 3.9 yards per carry average.

NIU starting QB Ethan Hampton did not play against Toledo and is questionable for Saturday. The Huskies could lean on the running game even more if he can't go.

Ball State has been relatively good at converting on the money downs, converting 39% of third downs (75th in FBS) and 55.6% of fourth downs (61st in FBS). However, the Cardinals will need to be much better than good on those downs against NIU.

The Huskies have the top-ranked third-down defense in the country with a 19.5% conversion rate. Opponents have converted just 17 third downs against NIU this season. Notre Dame went 3-for-10 on third downs in their shocking loss to the Huskies, and MAC opponents haven't fared much better. Buffalo went 2-for-15, Bowling Green went 1-for-13 and Toledo went 2-for-13 against NIU.

Ball State 24, Northern Illinois 20: The Huskies are double-digit favorites, but this one has the makings of an upset. Ball State's defense is finally playing with confidence, and the offense has been efficient and high-scoring in all three conference games. Add in a homecoming environment and lingering injuries to NIU's key offensive players, and Ball State has a good chance to claim the Bronze Stalk for the third year in a row.

Contact Cade Hampton via email at [email protected] or on X, formerly known as Twitter, @CadeHamp10.